Comment Expresses the views of the writer.
Therefore, it is incomprehensible that the government's plan is to increase the number of service providers by only fifty percent from a meager 9,000.
It gets even weirder when we add the time horizon. The number of conscripts was to be increased to 4,500 annually over the next twelve years.
That is, if Norway had made the same decision in 1938 when the dark clouds gathered over Europe, the project would have ended in 1950.
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A lot can go wrong in a short amount of time
History has taught us that many mistakes can be made in a short amount of time. Let's hope the government doesn't misunderstand and mean that there is a point in using the scheme's name “Long Term”.
30 years ago, 25,000 Norwegian youth completed their first service. Today, that number is down by two-thirds to 9,000. With larger cohorts now, more than twice the current number in initial service is not an unrealistic target.
From Dictatorship to Dictatorship
Our security situation is worse now than it was 30 years ago.
We know that from the new year 2022, our neighbor Russia is poised to launch an unprovoked full-scale invasion of democratic neighboring countries.
Russia was no longer a democracy, and they had turned from a totalitarian system into a totalitarian society.
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Donald Trump: Very worrying
At the same time, Trump is leading in polls conducted in the United States.
Many in the circle around Trump say he wants the US out of NATO. But by not doing so, NATO's deterrence could be completely undermined by saying that the US would not stand up to an attack on European countries.
He says the Russians “can do whatever they want” with countries that don't spend enough on defense in Europe, which is particularly troubling. We cannot chance that it is mere rhetoric.
Jorn Sund-Henriksson
Jørn Sund-Henriksson was an election observer in Gay during the 2004 Orange Revolution and served in the Coast Guard Command. He has been involved in independent intelligence (OSINT) in several conflicts for more than 10 years and is the president of the Norwegian-Ukrainian Friends Association. His contributions are based on open-source research, hence the accumulation and analysis of currently available information, with the dangers of misrepresentation.
Dangerous for many reasons
Trump's words are especially dangerous for two reasons:
- Norway is completely dependent on NATO for our security. All of our security thinking is built around it.
- At the same time, his statements sharply increase the risk of Russia testing NATO. If they want to do that there are two obvious candidates. One is the former Soviet republics in the Baltic States. Another is Svalbard.
Both options beg the question; “So what is Norway doing?”.
The answer is not clear.
But we must have a defense large and powerful enough that “fighting” is a credible option.
The war in Ukraine has taught us that however high our standards are, we must also have them in quantity. Wars are often started by professional armies but ended by popular armies.
Also read: Things are getting worse in Norway, which is why NATO is easy to target
We have a very small army
Norway has a very small army. That means it will have little staying power in a full-scale battle.
We need to mobilize more players quickly. It has been problematic that we have had very small cohorts through initial service over the years.
All the more reason to quickly reverse that trend. A remarkable pace over twelve years.
It would certainly require a logistical and infrastructural increase in the number of serving military personnel by 50 percent.
Especially if we think through classic public procurement and bureaucratic processes.
Our warships are halfway through their expected lives and have yet to acquire one of their most important capabilities; Helicopter.
In Norway, we are not particularly fast in the development of the armed forces.
If an aggressive and unpredictable neighboring state has turned its society into a full-blown war economy, combined with a possible NATO collapse, I wonder what would be enough to get the government to press the big red button.
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Our neighbors with major security measures
Our neighbors are making drastic increases in their defense budgets. At the same time, they pay significantly more to Ukraine than to Norway.
They do this by taking loans.
Norway can do both by pulling a cheese grater over our joint savings account. We will not notice it.
Yet the increase in the defense budget is not enough to actually fund the capability we already have on paper.
- Why are drastic measures not taken already?
- Why has no work been done to map out how to rapidly expand camps, barracks and other infrastructure to quickly bring in large quantities of coal for first-line service?
- Why isn't work being done to reintegrate deserters so that the armed forces have enough commanders and officers to keep more officers and provide more training?
You can read more by Jørn Sund-Henriksen
– We must have a large army
The war in Ukraine shows that we need to have a bigger army.
Experience there shows the value of having someone everywhere. Especially those who know their local environment. Therefore, Heimvernet must also grow.
Norway has one of the longest coastlines in the world. We must have more ships and enough crews so that they can sail at the same time.
However, the biggest lesson from Ukraine is that it is difficult to win a war without air defense.
Without a strong air force the army will bleed and the navy will sink.
Above all
In other words, we have to do more of everything. It takes time.
But that would be over twelve years earlier.
I'm looking forward to what's to come in the long-term plan for the armed forces, but I'm not holding my breath in positive anticipation.
No matter how much we press the big red button and get a force for our own self-defense, the fastest and cheapest way to increase our security is to make Ukraine win the war.
There are no other measures to immediately reduce the risk of ending up in a Norwegian war in the coming decades.
This means that the plans of Gunnar Berg and others about supporting Ukraine with NOK 1,000 billion are not imaginary figures. These are rational numbers and we need to have a serious public debate about them.
A thought experiment might be to ask the Finance Ministry to estimate the financial value of an invasion in April 1940.
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Human suffering and loss of freedom
How much money would it have cost us to invade in 1938 and not be occupied for five years?
The enormous human suffering and loss of freedom in our society is, I would say, almost impossible to quantify.
Therefore, there should be no ceiling on what we are willing to spend to ensure our own security now.
It is the first and foremost function of the state.
We must strengthen our security by significantly increasing both investment in our own defense and support for Ukraine.
We are in an extraordinarily unique fortunate situation to be able to do both.
At the same time.
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