Military technology means the war has reached a stalemate. This could lead to a long-term job war. Such a war could weaken the Ukrainian state, Valery Zalozny tells The Economist.
Zalozny has it too He wrote an article for the publication. There he discusses what is needed for Ukraine to win.
This summer, the Ukrainians launched a major offensive. Five months later, they reached ten kilometers at their deepest point. It took the Russians ten months to capture Bakhmut.
Now, in recent weeks, the Russians have begun a new offensive. It targets the city of Avdijivka. The Russians suffered heavy losses, but were unable to make an impact on the Ukrainian front.
– Most likely there will not be a deep and beautiful penetration, says Zalozny.
It should have been in Crimea
Zalozny says the original plan of attack was for them to advance 30 kilometers a day. They will quickly reach Crimea. It didn’t work out that way.
Extensive minefields and Russian artillery stopped the Ukrainian forces. In addition, Russian drones have made progress difficult.
– We see everything the enemy does. The enemy sees everything we do, Zalozny says.
I tried everything
When the attack stopped, the Defense Minister initially believed it was due to poor leadership. He replaced the military commanders. but to no avail.
– Then I thought it was about the soldiers. “I moved between departments, but that didn’t help either,” Zalozny says.
He also expressed his belief that the Russians would surrender due to the heavy losses. They didn’t.
– I thought wrong. At least 150,000 Russian soldiers were killed. In any other country, Zalozny says, such losses would have stopped the war.
Need something new
He believes that Ukraine must gain air superiority in order to win on the ground. In order to achieve this, the air force must be modernized. In addition, there must be a lot.
– In order to be able to move on Earth, we have to get something new. Just as the gunpowder was new, says Zalozny.
The Defense Chief believes there must be new technology. He mentions drones, electronic warfare, demining and robotics.
– It is important to understand that this war cannot be won with the weapons of previous generations and outdated methods. Zalozny says: It will inevitably lead to delay, and with that defeat.
He adds that the necessary innovations do not appear to be anywhere near the horizon.
Danger to Ukraine
-We have to find this new “gunpowder.” We have to master it quickly, and use it to achieve a quick victory,” Zalozny says.
It is believed that the war of positions could continue for many years and that it will lead to the exhaustion of the Ukrainian state.
-We must win quickly. “Because sooner or later we will not have enough people to continue the war,” says the Defense Minister.
The attack is believed to be a disaster
Zaluzhny’s post received a lot of space in Ukrainian media.
The general is not just anyone. He enjoys great respect from Ukrainians and military analysts. Many believe that the fact that Russian forces had to abandon the capture of the capital, Kiev, in February 2022, can be thanked specifically to Zalozhny.
But there are also other voices in Ukraine that question the attack.
One of those who made strong criticism is Aleksej Aristovich. He was previously an advisor to President Volodymyr Zelensky.
He resigned after blaming the Ukrainian Air Force for part of the responsibility for damage to an apartment building in the city of Dnipro during a Russian attack in January this year.
Aristovich is a well-known but controversial figure in Ukraine. He has a large number of followers. There are many Ukrainians who listen to what he says. More than 1.7 million followers YouTube channel Where he comments daily on the progress of the war.
In October, Aristovich said the Ukrainian attack was a disaster.
It is believed, among other things, that Zelensky and the military leaders failed in their strategy when they were unable to break through Russian defense lines.
Aristovich says that Ukrainian forces should have focused on the southern part of the front, but instead were drawn into the battle for the city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine.
He believes that Ukraine has now reached a dead end. The Russians can’t beat us, and we can’t beat them, says Aristovich.
The reason must be given
He also believes it is inconceivable that Ukraine will be able to restore its borders from 1991.
It is believed that one of the options that the Ukrainians should consider is the possibility of ceding the occupied territories to Russia, in exchange for Ukraine obtaining NATO membership.
He came out this week and said he wants to run Presidential candidate In the next elections.
Strong criticism of Aristovich is not common in the Ukrainian language.
President Zelensky insists that Ukraine will win the war on the battlefield and that negotiation with Russia is out of the question.
The vast majority of Ukrainians agree, with about 80% believing it is out of the question to give up the regions in order to achieve peace, he writes. Kyiv Post.
“Coffee trailblazer. Certified pop culture lover. Infuriatingly humble gamer.”