The war in Ukraine – experts:

In recent months, Ukraine has regained control over a number of Russian-occupied regions of the country. In September, Ukraine launched a lightning offensive in the Kharkiv region, recapturing several regions.

Recently, the Ukrainians have been particularly focused on the Kherson Province, and took back the city of Kherson last week. It was seen as a major victory for the Ukrainians, as Kherson was the only provincial capital the Russians managed to capture after the February 24 invasion.

– Crimea can be recaptured

With the recovery of Kherson, the possibility may also arise that Ukraine will eventually be able to regain Crimea, which Russia occupied and annexed in 2014. This is the opinion of many military experts.

– That Ukraine’s recovery of Crimea is now a real possibility, and it can no longer be ruled out, adds an American officer The telegraph.

Retired Lieutenant General Arne Bord-Dalhough also shares this view. He believes that Ukraine may be able to regain Crimea to some extent in time.

– This is a realistic scenario. If Russia offers military resistance it may take a few months, but if it does not offer military resistance as expected, it may be faster. We have previously seen how they withdrew from Kharkiv, Donbass and now more recently in Kherson, Dahlhugue tells Dagbladet.

The lieutenant general believes that the Russian reserves that have been deployed are poorly trained and cannot be used as offensive forces.

It will take many months for new military departments to form, and it is not certain that they will have the weapons and equipment to support these departments.

One of the scenarios that Dalhough believes could enable Ukraine to regain Crimea is if Ukrainian forces cross the river at the city of Dnipro, and attempt to recapture territory that extends as far as the Sea of ​​Azov.

– Then they will cut off the supply lines to the Crimea, and they will be able to attack from the land side. If they can do that, they will have the chance to take back Crimea, Dalhaug tells Dagbladet.

– Quite possible

Lieutenant Colonel Pale Edestbo, head of the Ground Forces Department of the Staff School, believes that Ukraine can reach Crimea or recapture large areas in the Donbass this winter.

– It is quite possible if the conditions are right. It will depend initially on strength conditions. Ukraine must have a mixture of local superiority in terms of quality and quantity in order to be able to penetrate the Russian front and penetrate Russian supply lines, especially the railways, Ydstebø tells NTB.

– It must be strong enough to counter any counterattacks and counterattacks. Such attacks require large amounts of artillery, which takes a lot of ammunition, Yedstepo says.

On Tuesday, SVT wrote that satellite imagery shows Russian forces digging trenches on the border between Kherson and Crimea. According to Swedish Lieutenant Colonel Joachim Paasikivi, this is a signal that Russian forces are preparing for a Ukrainian attack on Crimea.

– You worry about a Ukrainian attack as far as Crimea, and then you make preparations in the points of terrain where you expect the Ukrainians to advance, Pasikivy says. svt.

– Maybe next year

Now that Kherson is back in Ukrainian hands, the road to Crimea has become shorter for the Ukrainians. The Ukrainian offensive is moving in the direction of Crimea, but there is still a long way to go to the occupied peninsula. From the city of Kherson to the Crimea, the length of the road is more than 330 kilometers.

– They have prepared the ground so that they can regain full sovereignty, including over the Crimea, within the next year, I think.said retired Gen. Ben Hodges Newsweek in September.

Tom Roseth, assistant professor and principal lecturer in intelligence at the Norwegian Defense College (FHS), tells Dagbladet that The restoration of Kherson gives the Ukrainians the opportunity to advance. However, he believes that it may be very difficult to restore Crimea.

– There is still a long way to go before Ukraine can recapture the city of Sevastopol in Crimea, and militarily it will be very difficult. But I think we will see more Ukrainian victories and they will bounce back this winter. says Røseth to Dagbladet.

– in a special position

A year ago, it was unbelievable that Ukraine could win back the peninsula. Watchman He writes that no serious military analysts believe Ukraine is close to retaking Crimea, but the idea is seen as less innovative than it was a year ago.

As Russia struggles on several fronts in Ukraine, the paper writes, many people believe there is more hope now than before.

A retired Australian general, Mike Ryan, does not believe that Ukraine can regain Crimea in the short term. However, the fact that Ukraine has now returned Kherson is a step in the right direction, and we have to believe the general.

Arne Bård Dalhaug told Dagbladet earlier in November that Crimea is in a special situation.

– Russia is interested in Crimea more than anything else. What Russia had in Donbass they were willing to negotiate far from it, but Crimea would never be a bargaining chip. I can’t imagine a Russian president wanting to give up Crimea.

Serious consequences

If Crimea falls to Ukraine, it will be very decisive, according to many experts.

The liberation of Crimea would be the biggest victory of the war for Ukraine, an untold defeat for Russia, and even Putin’s grip on power could then be snagged by a thread, Tamar Vakhani, a foreign affairs expert for the Associated Press, writes.

Research leader Gudrun Persson at the Total Defense Research Institute (FOI) in Sweden believes the loss of Crimea would have major political consequences for Putin.

Speculation about the death of the Kherson leader

The annexation of Crimea was very popular in Russia, even in circles critical of Putin. It was accepted in Russian society, but also in the West. Putin got away with it. Pearson adds that it is very difficult for me to see that he will survive the loss of Crimea politically today’s news.

When asked if Putin would be spared politically if Crimea fell to the Ukrainians, Dalhough replied:

– It is difficult to know what is happening in the Kremlin, but if the war goes worse than now, I think Putin will be at large. He suffered major and painful defeats earlier in the war, and the loss of Crimea could lead to regime change. They’ve tried it before, first in 1917 and then in 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed, Dalhough says.