Next fall, the district parties will nominate their candidates for the 2025 general election. With Labor down in the polls, many big names risk dropping out of national politics.
It is especially hot in Oslo and Rogaland.
With four representatives in Oslo and three in Rogaland in the last election, today’s vote will leave the Labor Party with three representatives in Oslo and only two or three in Rogaland. That means there is no place for all the stars.
– If they don’t rise in the polls, it will be very tight, election analyst Svein Dor Martinsen tells Netavisen.
Barth Eade or Westray?
In Oslo, if Jonas Kahr Storr takes another term, he is sure to win first place. Storr says he wants to.
Since the Labor Party is in power for every second woman and man, there will be a woman in second place. Currently in second place is Kamsi Gunaratnam, who shows no sign of being done with national politics.
This could set the stage for a tough battle for the third and last safe spot on the list with three related candidates:
- Deputy President and Industry Minister John Christian Westray.
- Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide.
- District President and Parliamentary Representative Frode Jacobsen.
To accommodate both Støre and Eide, it might be appropriate to shift Vestre’s candidacy to Rogaland, where he was born.
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Get out of Tajik?
But a lot of people are looking for a place in Rogaland too. Hadiya Tajik came first in the last election. He became a minister but had to leave the government after a case related to a tax-free tourist accommodation he received in 2006 based on a lease he never used.
Later, Storr brought two younger Rogaland politicians into the government: Kari Nessa Nordun (37) and Andreas Bjelland Eriksson (31). Even after getting such important positions in the government, it is surprising if these people do not stop at starting.
When Rogaland’s three young politicians are made store ministers, space becomes tight for ex-ministers.
It will be even tighter if Vestre Rogaland travel to secure a seat in the Storting. In recent polls, the party is only two mandates away from here, but not far from a third mandate.
– They expect different numbers in 2025, but due to the long-term trend, there is enough time to stick your toe in the ground. Election analyst Martinson says the numbers are the same.
Westre will top the list if he contests the party’s vice-chairmanship in the state. The new climate and environment minister, Bjelland Eriksson, would also be in second place.
The battle to become the top lady could soon be between Education Minister Kari Nessa Nordun and Hadia Tajik.
According to Nettavisen’s understanding, Nordtun would be the favorite in such a contest, as the former Stavanger mayor has more support locally than Tajik. Thus, Tajik will basically fight for 3rd or 4th place.
It’s hard to say whether a stable politician like Tajik wants to stand in uncertainty or not. In the last election Espen Barth threatened Aid to withdraw from the list When he was proposed to the uncertain 5th in Oslo. That earned him 3rd place.
In addition, there are geographical considerations. It would not be unnatural to divide the places according to the three regions of North County, South County and Stavanger/Sandnes. Thus, the county team may have votes trying to get a candidate from the South into the top three or top four.
Vestre is from Haugesund in the north, Nessa Nordtun and Bjelland Eriksen are from Stavanger, and Tajik lives in Sandnes, but grew up in Bjørheimsbygd, on the other side of the fjord northeast of Stavanger.
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– A star bigger than Tajik
Martinsen calls it a luxury problem.
– Kari Nessa Nordtun says yes Rogaland Ap will face the luxury problem, which Martinsen says is not absolutely certain and points out that Nordtun had to. Think twice before she says yes Became a minister due to family circumstances.
– If she says yes, she is a bigger star than Hadiya Tajik as of today, so it’s only natural that she is number one. But that’s a bit if-if-then-if.
Tajik represented Oslo at the Storting from 2009 to 2017. Since 2017, he has been sitting on the Storting for Rogaland.
– The question is whether they will let Tajik go. She previously stopped in Oslo. But she has to push the cum out. If someone from Rogaland is nominated, there will be an internal uproar towards Krorud and Oslo eastward. Tajik has no obvious local root.
The poll analyst believes that Labor will try to find a place for Tajik in any case.
– I think if Tajik wants re-election they will find a place, and it looks like that. Then Rogaland and Oslo are more natural.
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Netavisen asked Tajik if he is running for re-election, how he sees the candidacy attack in Rogaland, and if he is considering running in a constituency other than Rogaland. Tajik did not respond to questions.
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Martinsen floats the idea of moving someone from Rogaland or Oslo to a district that doesn’t have many strong cards.
– If you are a central Labor politician in Oslo or Rogaland, is it time to declare action?
– Martinsen laughed, pointing out that we should continue to follow, then it might be unpopular in the new batch.
– It will be easier elsewhere with less competition. But finding a circle without an anchor there gets a little artificial. It’s not just hype for things like this.
There are many examples of politicians standing for Parliament from other than the most natural. Often, the politician has some connection to his or her immigrant constituency, but not always.
In the last election, Oslo politician Carl I. Hagen (Frp) won a parliamentary seat again, running in Oppland, where his wife and they had long had a cottage.
When Sveinung Rotevatn became deputy leader of the Liberal Party, Sogn og Fjordane became too dangerous, so he was transferred to the Hordaland constituency, where entry into the Storting is significantly lower. Liberal deputy leader Abid Rajah also lived in Oslo, representing Akershus in the Storting.
MDG leader Une Bastholm was nominated for Akershus in the last election, although she lives in Oslo, creating Lan Marie Berg in the capital.
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